Vienna 20 April 2010 - World Steel Association (worldsteel) industry organization today announced its short-term forecast for global demand for steel for 2010 and 2011. World Steel estimates that steel consumption will increase by 10.7% to 1.241 million metric tons (mmt) in 2010 ) After a previous decline in 2009 of 6.7%. According to this forecast, global demand for steel in 2010 will be higher than the pre-crisis level in 2007. For 2011, growth is expected to reach 5.3% at an historical peak of 1306 mm. The resilience of emerging economies, and in particular China, has proved to be the critical factor, leading to a recovery earlier than expected.

Worldsteel's chairman, Daniel Novegil, quotes the figures: "The overall picture is an improvement over the estimate we issued in October last year. The global steel industry is now on its way to recovery. Emerging economies, which were in total positive growth during the crisis, continue to show strong growth and continue to determine the world demand for steel, but the current recovery in the most developed economies is slower and for them the expected demand for steel 2011 far below the level of 2007. The recovery is not only earlier but also stronger than expected. This is largely due to government support and the recent reconstruction of stocks. The real concern will be how the macroeconomic policy will deal with fiscalities and the pressure of inflation after the crisis. "

Short-term forecasts finished steel (2009-2011):


Regions

ASU, mmt

 

Growth Rates, %

2009 (e)

2010 (f)

2011 (f)

 

2009 (e)

2010 (f)

2011 (f)

               

European Union (27)

118.4

134.6

145.2

 

-35.2%

13.7%

7.9%

Other Europe

23.9

27.2

30.4

 

-12.5%

13.5%

11.9%

C.I.S.

35.8

39.8

43.0

 

-28.2%

11.0%

8.0%

N.A.F.T.A.

80.9

99.9

107.1

 

-37.4%

23.5%

7.2%

Central & South America

33.6

40.4

43.1

 

-24.1%

20.0%

6.7%

Africa

26.4

28.7

31.3

 

9.6%

8.6%

9.3%

Middle East

40.7

44.7

48.4

 

-8.0%

10.0%

8.2%

Asia & Oceania

761.5

825.7

857.7

 

8.7%

8.4%

3.9%

World

1,121.2

1,240.9

1,306.2

 

-6.7%

10.7%

5.3%

China

542.4

578.7

594.9

 

24.8%

6.7%

2.8%

BRIC

640.9

692.0

720.7

 

17.5%

8.0%

4.1%

MENA

57.5

62.9

68.2

 

0.8%

9.5%

8.4%

World excl. China

578.8

662.2

711.3

 

-24.5%

14.4%

7.4%

World excl. BRIC

480.3

548.9

585.6

 

-26.8%

14.3%

6.7%